The crypto market showed signs of stabilization on Friday as bitcoin (BTC) bounced back from its overnight lows, trading near the psychologically important $60,000 level. The recovery came as U.S. stocks trimmed earlier deep losses, with the Nasdaq 100 index falling just 0.3% after being down nearly 2% at the open. This relief in risk assets helped lift sentiment across digital currencies, which had been under pressure for much of the week. The broader market context remains fragile, but traders are closely watching how the quarter ends given the large options expiry scheduled for Friday.

Bitcoin Recovery and Support Levels

After dipping to a low of $58,188 in the previous 24-hour period, bitcoin rebounded to around $59,800 by late morning U.S. time, representing a 2.7% bounce from the trough. The leading cryptocurrency remains down about 5% on the week and nearly 20% for the month, but the move back above $60,000 brought some relief to leveraged longs. The $58,000–$62,000 range has been the dominant trading zone all week, and analysts note that the $50,000–$60,000 area has historically acted as a major support region. This zone was first established in mid-2024 after the launch of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, and has held through subsequent selloffs including the yen carry trade unwind and the election cycle. According to CF Benchmarks, each retest of this range has attracted buyers, suggesting that the current dip may also draw accumulation activity.

All wallet cohorts in the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score have shifted into accumulation for the first time this year, according to Glassnode data. Retail holders with less than 1 BTC were the first to start buying, and the largest whale cohort—entities holding more than 10,000 BTC—has now joined in. This broad-based buying signals renewed conviction despite the recent price weakness. The aggregate Accumulation Trend Score has remained firmly in accumulation territory for the past month.

Altcoin Outperformance: Aave and Solana Ecosystem

While bitcoin held steady, the strongest gains came from decentralized finance and the Solana ecosystem. AAVE, the native token of the Aave lending protocol, jumped 19% after reports emerged that crypto exchange Kraken is exploring a strategic investment. Aave founder Stani Kulechov reiterated that all protocol revenue flows to AAVE holders and teased an upcoming 'Aavenomics 3.0' upgrade that includes an automated token buyback mechanism. This news reignited interest in the DeFi sector, which has been lagging in the current market cycle.

Solana (SOL) climbed nearly 10% as tokenized stock trading on the network hit a record high. Solana processed more than $2.5 billion in tokenized equity transfer volume this week, capturing over 80% of the market across blockchains, according to RWA.xyz data. The activity spilled over into native Solana protocols. Jito (JTO), the network's largest liquid staking protocol, surged 30%, while Kamino Finance (KMNO) gained 9% and decentralized exchange Raydium (RAY) rose about 7%. The tokenized stock trend continues to gain traction as institutional interest in blockchain-based equities grows.

Crypto Stocks Rally After Weeks of Losses

Crypto-related equities, beaten down over the past month, staged a relief rally on Friday. Circle (CRCL) led the advance, climbing around 7%. Even after the bounce, the stablecoin issuer remains nearly 50% below its mid-May peak. Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) gained 4%–5%, while Bullish (BLSH), the institutional crypto platform, rose about 6%. Custodian BitGo (BTGO) was 6.8% higher. Canton Equity Partners II (CEPT), the SPAC planning to merge with tokenization firm Securitize, jumped more than 11%. These moves reversed some of the sharp declines seen earlier in the week.

The rally came alongside improving consumer sentiment data. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose about 10% from May, with gains across income groups and political affiliations. Consumers became more optimistic about the economy over the next five years, as concerns over a prolonged conflict in the Middle East eased. Inflation expectations edged lower: consumers now expect inflation to run at 4.6% over the next year, down from 4.8% in May, while long-run inflation expectations fell to 3.3% from 3.9%.

Fed Rate Hike Expectations Ease

Market participants are reassessing the odds of Federal Reserve rate hikes after the surprisingly hawkish shift from Chairman Kevin Warsh last week. The two-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to Fed policy expectations, has returned to 4.07%, down from a spike to 4.23% just days after the meeting. The 10-year yield at 4.36% is actually five basis points lower than its pre-meeting level. The CME FedWatch tool now prices a 77% chance of one or more rate hikes by year-end, down from about 90% immediately following the event. If expectations of tighter monetary policy continue to diminish, that could provide a positive catalyst for crypto markets, which have been hungry for good news.

Weekend Bitcoin Trading Patterns

Historical data suggests that weekends may offer more favorable conditions for bitcoin. Since CME Bitcoin futures began trading on weekends a month ago, bitcoin's only positive daily returns have come on Saturdays and Sundays, while every weekday has closed in the red. Fridays have averaged a modest 0.2% decline over the past three months, consistent with the current day's flat to slightly negative performance. With bitcoin trading around $60,000, traders are watching for weekend strength that could break the recent weekday downtrend.

BitGo Workforce Reduction and Broader Restructuring

BitGo, the crypto custodian, announced a 15% workforce reduction as part of a restructuring aimed at narrowing strategic focus. CEO Mike Belshe stated that the digital asset industry has changed, and the company plans to concentrate resources on security, trading, stablecoins, settlement, and AI-powered infrastructure. The news initially weighed on BitGo shares, but the stock ultimately rose modestly on Friday as the market viewed the restructuring positively. Belshe said he does not anticipate any more layoffs.

Stress on Strategy's Capital Structure

Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate bitcoin holder, saw its common stock fall 9% on Thursday and extended losses in pre-market trading on Friday, dropping another 2% to around $85. The stock is now more than 85% below its November 2024 all-time high. The company's perpetual preferred stock, STRC, slid 2.5% to $73.80—about 25% below its intended $100 par value—highlighting mounting pressure on Strategy's capital structure. Michael Saylor, executive chairman, took to social media to reassure investors, stating that the company remains focused on bitcoin, disciplined capital allocation, credit quality, and long-term value creation. Some market commentators have suggested that Strategy could use its cash reserves to buy back its preferred stock at a discount, which might stabilize the structure and reduce forced selling of bitcoin.

ETF Outflows Continue

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs shed $696 million on Thursday, marking the sixth consecutive day of net redemptions. BlackRock's IBIT, the largest fund, accounted for $63 million of the outflows, while Fidelity's FBTC lost $3.5 million and Grayscale's funds shed a combined $23 million. No fund recorded meaningful inflows. Similarly, spot ether ETFs lost $81.9 million, also their sixth straight day of outflows. BlackRock's ETHA led with $63 million in redemptions. Total ether ETF assets have fallen to $8.3 billion from $10 billion at the start of the month, reflecting the broader downtrend in altcoins.

Tether Overtakes Ether in Market Cap

Tether's USDT stablecoin briefly surpassed ether to become the second-largest cryptocurrency by fully diluted market value, reaching $191.5 billion compared to ether's $187.5 billion. This milestone is more a reflection of ether's ongoing weakness than Tether's growth—ether fell 5.5% in 24 hours while bitcoin held relatively steady. The move underscores the flight to stablecoins amid the selloff.

Liquidations Surge and Options Expiry Looms

Over $1 billion in crypto positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for $842 million of the total. About 148,500 traders were wiped out, and the largest single liquidation was a $38 million bitcoin-dollar position on Hyperliquid. Bitcoin led all assets with $489 million in liquidations, followed by ether at $295 million. The current options expiry at quarter-end is a live catalyst—large volumes of contracts expire simultaneously, which can amplify price moves in either direction. How bitcoin exits this session is likely to set the tone for July.

Quarter-End Market Context

Major cryptocurrencies are on track for a third consecutive quarterly decline, a feat last seen during the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin is down roughly 12% for the June quarter after falling 23% and 22% in the two preceding quarters. Ether is down 25%, while XRP and SOL are down 22% and 16%, respectively. Only a handful of tokens, such as HYPE and ZEC, have posted gains this quarter. The ongoing selloff has been broad-based, driven by macroeconomic uncertainty, regulatory headwinds, and waning risk appetite. However, the accumulation activity across all wallet cohorts suggests that long-term investors view current prices as attractive entry points.

Source:Coindesk News