New research applying the Bitcoin Decay Model indicates the next major Bitcoin cycle peak might occur significantly later than many anticipate – potentially extending into late 2025 or even 2026.

This analysis, challenging more optimistic forecasts for an early 2025 top, suggests the characteristic "decay" in growth rate per cycle observed in Bitcoin's history is continuing. While the 2024 halving remains a key catalyst, the model predicts the subsequent bull run could unfold over a longer timeframe.

Key Takeaways:

• Later Peak Forecast: The Decay Model shifts the expected timing of the next Bitcoin all-time high (ATH) towards late 2025 or 2026.
• Growth Rate Decay: The model tracks the diminishing percentage growth achieved in each successive Bitcoin bull market cycle.
• Halving Impact Acknowledged: The analysis incorporates the 2024 halving but factors in the historical pattern of lengthening cycles and reduced growth rates.
• Challenging Consensus: This projection contrasts with predictions expecting a peak shortly after the 2024 halving.

Why This Matters:
Understanding potential cycle timing is crucial for investors. A later peak implies a potentially longer accumulation phase and a more gradual bull run, influencing strategic decisions like entry points, DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) schedules, and exit planning. This model provides a data-driven counterpoint to near-term peak predictions.

Analysis:
The Bitcoin Decay Model offers a compelling, historically-grounded perspective. While unforeseen events (like major regulatory shifts or macroeconomic shocks) can always alter trajectories, the model highlights the importance of tempering short-term euphoria post-halving with a view towards the established, long-term trend of lengthening cycles and moderated growth.